In recent years, macroeconomics has become increasingly challenging to forecast due to unpredictable global events. Moreover, the economic aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the consequent sanctions have aggravated existing financial complexities worldwide.
Moreover, the imminent market volatility in the United States, including persistent inflation and a looming recession, has only compounded the problems (inflation rates currently). As a result, analysts, investors, and other market participants are questioning the fundamentals of investing and striving to develop effective methods for maximizing value.
Looking at Distressed Assets and identifying and managing the risks and rewards in turnaround investments (or, as some would call it, buying value stocks or investments) can be a great way to maximize gains in the uncertain period in the near future.
Distressed Assets Meaning
Distressed Companies or Assets are generally those companies/asset classes that urgently need to take action before going out of business. Common signs of distress include high-interest payments, reduced cash flows, falling margins, increased days to pay creditors, and employee dissatisfaction. (Quantitative Analysis in Finance)
This doesn't happen immediately, but occurs in stages, eventually leading to the company trading below its intrinsic value.
When the stock or asset price hits rock bottom, this can especially be appealing for investors looking to buy value stocks. Investors who buy distressed assets are often aware of their turnaround potential and buy into the asset, eventually reaping the rewards once the management team steers the ship in the right direction.
Investment Advice from Warren Buffet
There is perhaps no greater value investor in the world than Warren Buffet, who has consistently outperformed the broad market index. As a result, the wealth of Warren Buffet now rivals that of the most successful founders in the world and is consistently ranked in the top ten globally.
Today we'll cover three companies of Warren Buffet, which are value stocks disguised as distressed assets due to uncertainty amongst market participants, but ultimately yielding returns to shareholders who believed in the process. This will include stocks Warren Buffet buys, investment advice, and how you can identify stocks in the future based on value investing principles.
Before we cover the stocks, it is first important to understand how Warrant Buffet identified distressed assets, separating companies with a potential for a turnaround from those that will eventually go out of business and, as a result generating massive returns for shareholders.
Warren Buffet Stock Picking
When Warren Buffet was stock picking early in his career, he talked about the "cigar butt" approach (cited from the 1989 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders). The approach known as "cigar butt" investing involves buying a stock at a low price and waiting for a chance to sell at a decent profit, even if the business's long-term performance is poor.
This strategy relies on finding a hiccup in the company's fortunes to capitalize on. The last puff of a cigar butt found on the street may not offer much smoke, but it can be profitable with a "bargain purchase."
The three stocks identified below will each look at a distressed stock or asset class, either short or long-term, and how Warren Buffet picked and subsequently outperformed the market using the strategy.
What Companies Warren Buffet Owns (or Used to Own)
1. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Warren Buffet's purchase and the recent sale of TSM highlight how fickle and volatile stock markets can often be. Buffet's investment firm Berkshire Hathaway reported in November that it had invested $4.1 billion in the semiconductor maker, buying up 60.1 million company shares (averaging a purchase price of $68/share).
The investment was a contrarian bet at the time, given that there was a barrage of negative news surrounding the company, from a potential incursion by China into Taiwan to a slowdown in demand due to macroeconomic challenges and uncertainty regarding the balance sheet and liquidity due to high capital expenditure plans. TSMC stock had slid 58% from its all-time high, closing below $60/share for the first time since 2020.
However, after Buffet bought the shares, the company saw demand rebound strongly (proving that semiconductors will continue to be cyclical in nature), while a cut in capital expenditure and costs eased investors' fears of overcapacity, leading to a rally in the stock.
While Buffet did sell his shares shortly after, any investor who identified that negativity around the company was nothing but short-term headwinds would have generated returns of over 50% in just a few short months.
2. HPQ Stock
Warren Buffet unveiled his latest tech investment in 2022, buying 121 million shares of struggling PC and laptop maker HP inc for $4.2 billion. The purchase was Buffet's second largest tech holding behind Apple, his firm's most successful investment over the last decade.
When Berkshire made the purchase, market analysts had largely written off HP, struggling with plunging demand for notebooks after it had skyrocketed during the pandemic. However, with a dividend yield of close to 4% and trading at just 8x earnings, HP falls firmly under the value territory.
Warren Buffet is still down 15% compared to his purchase price, but considering that HP continues to deliver returns at a relatively cheap valuation and that demand will eventually rebound, the stock is sure to surge in the coming years (even if it is a medium-term bet compared to the TSM purchase).
3. Oil Stocks
Warren Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway delivered yet another year of positive returns to shareholders, despite a brutal bear market plunging valuations by 19% (and much more for tech stocks), all thanks to their long-term contrarian investing strategy.
Energy and oil stocks have long been thought to be dead by Main Street and new-age ESG-focused investors, with returns from giants like Chevron and Occidental staying flat or declining between 2012-2020.
Despite this, Buffet and Berkshire poured a record $45 billion into oil stocks, buying a major chunk of Occidental, and supplemented its position in Chevron. Moreover, Russia's invasion of Ukraine ultimately drove oil prices to record highs, with companies buying back stock using profits, juicing returns further.
Energy stocks continue to be the cheapest sector in the S&P 500, trading at an 11.1x P/E after a record 56% gain due to its limited future, but Buffet's intuition in the sector and his courage to invest when no one else wanted to touch the sector show how the legendary investor picks out value stocks, despite whatever prevailing market conditions exist.
Bottom Line on Distressed Assets
Investing in distressed assets can be a great way to maximize gains during uncertain times in the market. The recent global events, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have further complicated the financial complexities worldwide. Identifying and managing the risks and rewards in turnaround investments can lead to significant gains for investors.
Value investing principles, as demonstrated by Warren Buffet's successful investments in distressed assets such as TSM, HP Inc, and oil stocks, can help identify potential winners in the market. Distressed assets can offer a chance to invest in companies that are temporarily undervalued due to market volatility and allow investors to reap significant returns once the company's fortunes turn around.
Frequently Asked Questions on Distressed Assets
How can investors identify the potential for a distressed asset to turn around and become a profitable investment rather than just a company that will eventually go out of business?
Identifying the potential for a distressed asset to turn around and become a profitable investment requires careful analysis and due diligence. Here are some factors that investors should consider:
Market Potential: The market potential for the asset should be carefully evaluated. The investor should analyze the market size, growth potential, competition, and any regulatory hurdles that might impede the asset's growth. Management Team: A solid and experienced management team is essential to turning around a distressed asset. The investor should evaluate the management team's ability to execute a turnaround plan, successful track record, and willingness to make difficult decisions. Financial Position: The financial position of the asset is a critical factor in determining its potential for a turnaround. The investor should analyze the asset's financial statements, cash flow, and debt levels. It may be a good candidate for a reversal if the asset has a viable business model but struggles due to short-term financial problems. Competitive Advantage: The asset should have a unique value proposition or competitive advantage that differentiates it from its competitors. The investor should evaluate the asset's competitive position and its ability to generate sustainable profits over the long term. Industry Trends: The investor should analyze the industry trends and identify disruptive technologies or business models that may impact the asset's future growth prospects. Risk Factors: Finally, the investor should identify and evaluate potential risk factors that impede the asset's turnaround. These may include regulatory or legal issues, environmental concerns, or changes in consumer behavior. By carefully evaluating these factors, investors can identify distressed assets with the potential for a successful turnaround and ultimately profitable investment. However, it's important to note that distressed assets are inherently risky, and investors should always proceed with caution and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.
